Global CB Holdings
39,099t
+220t Q3
YTD Purchases
634t
Q1-Q3 2025
Gold Price
$3,457
+40% YoY
Top Buyer
Poland
~42t
ETF Flow Momentum
—
4Q avg: —
—
Central Bank Net Purchases
Quarterly tonnes
Top Buyers
Net purchases in tonnes
Gold Price vs Central Bank Purchases
Quarterly average price (USD/oz) and net purchases
Jewelry Demand
Quarterly tonnes
Bar & Coin Investment
Quarterly tonnes
ETF Flows
Net inflows/outflows (tonnes)
4Q Rolling Average
Flow Momentum (Rate of Change)
A falling value here means buyers are becoming less enthusiastic — even if flows remain positive
Demand Composition
Percentage breakdown
Demand by Category (Quarterly)
| Quarter | Jewelry | Bar & Coin | ETF Flows | Central Banks | Total Investment |
|---|
Central Bank Net Purchases
All central banks combined
Quarterly Data
| Quarter | Net Purchases (t) | Holdings (t) | Gold Price ($/oz) | QoQ Change |
|---|
Central Bank Gold Holdings by Country
| Country |
|---|
World Gold Council
Primary data source for quarterly gold demand trends and central bank purchases.
gold.org/goldhub →
Methodology
Data updated quarterly following WGC Gold Demand Trends reports. Holdings in metric tonnes.
Last update: Q3 2025
📄 Upload WGC Quarterly Data
Upload a WGC Gold Demand Trends XLSX file (
GDT_Tables_Q*_EN.xlsx, available quarterly at gold.org). All demand series and gold price are extracted from the Gold Balance sheet automatically.
No file selected
DATA:
FRED
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COT
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Prices
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IMF CB
—
Real Rate vs Gold — Dual-Regime Analysis
2006–2021: rate-driven regime (R²≈0.88) | 2022–present: structural break (relationship broken)
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DXY vs Gold
USD Index (inverted) vs gold — decoupling highlighted when correlation > −0.1
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CFTC COT — Managed Money Positioning
Net long contracts (bars) vs gold price (line) — 80th/20th percentile reference lines
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Gold Cobasis (Spot − Futures)
Amber shading = backwardation (spot > futures); grey = contango
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Gold/Silver Ratio
GLD/SLV close ratio with 60-day rolling mean ± 1 SD bands
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GDX/GLD Ratio — Miner Leverage
Miner-to-bullion ratio (top) and 90-day rolling beta (bottom)
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Demand Decomposition
Stacked bars by category (ETF outflows below zero) + gold price line
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Bull Market Scorecard
9-factor signal dashboard — updated from live API data
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Sources:
FRED (TIPS, Gold, DXY, SOFR)
·
CFTC Commitments of Traders
·
Yahoo Finance (GDX, GLD, SLV, GC=F)
·
World Gold Council
·
Swiss Federal Customs (BAZG)
Signal:
Countries simultaneously reducing US Treasury holdings and increasing gold reserves
are structurally diversifying away from the dollar reserve system.
Post-March 2022 (Russia reserve freeze), this accelerated among both adversarial
and Western-aligned central banks. The WGC vs IMF gap measures gold accumulation
not yet officially reported — a proxy for covert or unreported purchases.
TIC Data As Of
—
~45 day lag
All Countries Treasury Holdings
—
—
All Countries 12M Change
—
vs prior year (aggregate)
WGC vs IMF Gap (Latest Q)
—
unreported accumulation
Foreign Holdings of US Treasuries
USD billions, monthly — Source: US Treasury TIC
US-Aligned
China-Aligned
Neutral
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USD Share of Global Reserves
%, quarterly — Source: IMF COFER
Source: IMF COFER SDMX API.
Global aggregate — includes both advanced and emerging economies. Quarterly lag ~3–6 months.
Major Foreign Holders — Current Snapshot
| Country | Geopolitical Alignment | Holdings ($B) | 1M Change | 2M Change | 6M Change | 1Y Change | 2Y Change | 3Y Change | 4Y Change | 5Y Change | 6Y Change | 7Y Change | 8Y Change | 9Y Change | 10Y Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Source: US Treasury TIC mfhhis01.txt.
Custodial basis — Belgium, Luxembourg, Cayman Islands often proxy for other countries.
Signal:
Financial repression occurs when policy rates are held below inflation,
effectively taxing savers and debt holders while eroding the real burden of government debt.
This tab tests the repression thesis across five independent metrics.
STATUS:
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RANGE:
Liquidation Tax
Average interest rate on outstanding Treasury debt minus trailing 12-month CPI inflation
Latest Value
—
pp
Avg Debt Rate
—
%
CPI YoY
—
%
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Real Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS minus trailing 12-month CPI inflation (FRED)
Latest Value
—
%
Fed Funds Rate
—
%
CPI YoY
—
%
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Gold TIPS Regression Residual
Actual gold minus TIPS-predicted gold — positive = new regime premium active
Current Residual
—
USD
Gold Actual
—
USD
Gold Predicted (Model)
—
1484.87 − 330.71 × TIPS
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Fed Reaction Function Asymmetry Tracker
Actual Fed Funds vs simplified Taylor-rule prescription — persistently negative = repression
Repression Residual
—
actual − prescribed
Actual Fed Funds
—
%
Prescribed Rate (Taylor)
—
neutral=2% / π*=2%
Output Gap
—
% (quarterly)
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Sources: FRED (FEDFUNDS, CPIAUCSL, PCEPILFE, DFII10, GDPC1, GDPPOT) · Treasury Fiscal Data (avg interest rates on outstanding debt) · Spot gold via existing price fetcher
AI Gold Market Reports
Claude-generated monthly analysis with full market data snapshots
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Monitor:
Tracks delayed and indirect evidence consistent with Gulf oil-state reserve stress
(Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar). This is a lagged, probabilistic assessment —
not a real-time detector. Most inputs carry material publication delays.
Score is driven only by attributable signals (oil shock, country-level TIC, official reserves).
Score is driven only by attributable signals (oil shock, country-level TIC, official reserves).
REGIME:
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Brent Crude
DIRECT
—
USD/bbl
GCC Revenue Loss/Day
DIRECT
—
vs 12M avg
Saudi TIC Holdings
DELAYED
—
USD bn
Reserves
—
—
—
RANGE:
Scored Signals
Oil Shock Monitor
SCORED · DIRECT
Brent crude vs trailing 12M average — revenue shortfall estimate for GCC exporters
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GCC Treasury Holdings (TIC)
SCORED · DELAYED 2–3 MO
Major Foreign Holders — SA, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar (USD bn). Effective lag 2–3 months from today.
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Source Health
Data freshness and lag for each ingestion source
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Scored: FRED DCOILBRENTEU (Brent, 1d lag) · TIC MFH (country-level, 2–3 mo lag) · EIA STEO (production, ~30d lag)
Phase 2 pending: SAMA, CBUAE, CBK, QCB official reserve bulletins (highest-priority scored input)
Phase 2 pending: SAMA, CBUAE, CBK, QCB official reserve bulletins (highest-priority scored input)